The Science of Prediction

Every prediction you see on AmazingStakes is the result of cross-referencing three primary data streams:

• Form Dynamics: We weigh the last 5-10 matches, giving higher importance to recent results and the quality of opponents faced.
• Historical Context: Head-to-head (H2H) records over the last 3 seasons to identify "bogey teams" and recurring patterns.
• Statistical Stability: League-wide averages for goals, clean sheets, and home/away advantage.

We use different mathematical models depending on the market you are viewing:

For 1X2 Outcomes:
We calculate the "Expected Points" based on defensive solidity vs offensive efficiency.

For Over/Under & BTTS:
We analyze the frequency of "Goal Involvement" for both sides. If both teams consistently score and concede in 70%+ of matches, our BTTS: Yes confidence increases.

For HT/FT:
We track "Fast Starters" vs "Late Finishers" to predict match flow across the two halves.

Our Confidence Gauge is not a guarantee of a win. Instead, it represents the statistical alignment of the data:

• High (75%+): Strong alignment across form, H2H, and league trends.
• Medium (55-74%): Strong form but conflicting H2H history, or missing key variables.
• Low (Below 55%): Volatile markets where data shows high unpredictability (e.g., derbies or cup ties).